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Sorry to say, you can’t get much for 100 million dollars these days. Carlos Lee is a good ballplayer, but put into perspective, he is not a franchise player by any stretch of the imagination.
His fielding, which is below average, may not be a big problem at Minute Maid Park because he won’t have to cover as much territory as he will on the road. But great players help you on offense and defense. Carlos is one dimensional.
That dimension is somewhat limited too. On the plus side, he has been both durable and consistent. If Morgan Ensberg played 150 or more games a year, his offensive production would be similar to Lee’s. But he has not been able to do that for two reasons. First, he has often been injured. Second, he has been prone to slumps. Still, he has similar power to Carlos and a better on-base average.
The guy who reminds me of Carlos most is my old teammate, Bob Watson. Bob was a force in the middle of the lineup, but he didn’t do as much for the Astros in all facets of the game as Joe Morgan, Jimmy Wynn or Cesar Cedeno.
Don’t even think about Jeff Bagwell. Lee and Bagwell aren’t even in the same league when it comes to hitting, let alone all around play. Lance Berkman is a much better hitter than Lee – almost as good as Bagwell. If I were pitching to Lance, with Lee up next, I would still pitch around Lance.
Another perspective is to look at the competition – the Cardinals. Albert Pujols is even better than Berkman. But the Cardinals also have more support for Pujols. Jim Edmonds may be near the end of his career, but his hitting numbers exceed Lee’s both in on-base average and in slugging. Scott Rolen is a better hitter too. Admittedly, neither of them can be expected to play as many games next year. As for the pitching, the Cardinals let Woody Williams go.
Despite these facts, Carlos Lee will help the Astros offense a lot. He is a proven RBI hitter. He knows he can get the big hit because he has done it, year in and year out. The Astros don’t have any other hitter besides Berkman who fits that description. And if Carlos continues to be durable, he will give the lineup a sense of stability it did not have last season.
That said, next season is not last season. Every year brings new challenges and you can seldom predict what they will be. For example, when Drayton McLane bought the Astros, the team needed pitching help. He signed Doug Drabek and Greg Swindell to solve that problem, but those two home-town products started to decline and didn’t produce the positive impact that was expected. Then two more local heroes came home and exceeded expectations. It would be nice to get Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte back in 2007, but if neither comes back, Woody Williams and Carlos Lee can’t make up the difference.
One thing that is encouraging is that G.M. Tim Purpura has already said that the team needs to make further improvements. I think he is aware of the situation. One big splash does not create a tidal wave. Lee was a good start. Williams could be just as important if Roger and Andy retire. The next question is whether there is enough money left in the coffer to finish the job. The most vexing thought is that even if there is enough money, the right players may not be available. It takes two to tango. |
