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The domino effect continues at Minute Maid Park. Keep in mind, the dominoes fall; they do not rise. And it all starts with Craig Biggio.
I don’t fault the Astros for signing Bidge again. Last year maybe, but at this stage I think it’s best to let him get his 3000 hits, even though he can’t play second base very well anymore. He only needs about three hundred at bats to reach that milestone. If he plays a lot early in the year, and gets the big hit halfway through the summer, Phil Garner will finally be able to play Chris Burke at second base, where he belongs. But then who will play centerfield, Jason Lane?
Playing left field and right field at Minute Maid is relatively easy. Chris Burke and Lane are fine in the corner outfield spots. But playing centerfield well in Houston requires great speed – Willy Taveras and Carlos Beltran type speed.
My idea of a winning team often seems exactly the opposite of the current Astros management team. That doesn’t mean I’m right. But I do have a legitimate opinion. If it were up to me, Burke would bounce around from one position to another until Biggio got his 3000th hit. Then Burke would become the regular second baseman. Pettitte would still be in the rotation, and Taveras would still be in center. In a sense, the first half of the 2007 season would be a sacrifice in honor of Biggio. It wouldn’t be a great sacrifice because Bidge is still a pretty good hitter.
I’m pretty sure Garner doesn’t feel the way I do because he often concedes fielding to get more offense. In fact, he had Chris Burke playing centerfield for a considerable length of time last year, before going back to Taveras.
I saw Burke in center enough to decide that if I were pitching, I would want Willy out there, even though Burke has a better bat. If you don’t catch a ball in centerfield, it usually costs you two or three bases. When Carlos Beltran and Taveras were in center at Minute Maid, those potential doubles and triples became outs, as did some of the looping singles.
From my point of view, the recent trade with the Rockies was made out of desperation. Even last season, the Astros seemed desperate to play Burke more often. Last week, they became desperate to get a good veteran starting pitcher after losing Andy Pettitte.
Even if you concede that Jason Jennings is as good a pitcher as Pettitte (which I don’t), Woody Williams would have to be as good as Roger Clemens for the rotation to be as strong as it was last year. Without Russ Springer, the bullpen isn’t as deep either. In order for the Astros to get the kind of pitching they had last season, several of their young pitchers will have to have breakout years, which could happen. They all looked pretty good to me last year. No apparent Roy Oswalt in the mix, but a few guys who could have solid careers. The problem is that pitchers need fielders like a baby needs his mama. John Smoltz and Tom Glavine didn’t become good pitchers until the Braves revamped the left side of their infield.
The Astros will not have good fielding next year no matter what they do in the remaining months before opening day. Two of the most important positions, second base and centerfield, will be weak. The only position that will be above average is shortstop.
There is little doubt the team will have a more potent offense with Burke and Carlos Lee in the lineup. But my guess is that the team will also have less pitching, partly due to the pitchers themselves, but mostly because of the fielding.
I doubt the transformation of the team bothers Garner. I would guess that he likes it. He often pinch hits to try to add to a lead, sacrificing defense in the bargain. I never weakened my defense with a lead. Phil’s record with the Astros speaks for itself. It’s excellent. So was mine. All that proves is that there is more than one way to win. I look at the game like a pitcher. He looks at it like a hitter. I favor pitching and defense because it correlates with winning more often than good hitting. But, as we saw in the first half of the last two seasons, you can’t win unless you score, no matter how good your pitching and fielding are.
The winning formula is the same for everyone. If you score more runs than you allow, you win. My fear is that when the last domino falls, the Astros will allow too many runs. |
